🏦 FINANCE • NBFIHNBF.N0000

HNB Finance: Steering Towards Stability Amidst Choppy Waters?

A look at their 2024/25 journey

📊 Key Numbers in Human Terms

Metric2024/252023/24Change
Gross IncomeLKR 13.28 bnLKR 14.91 bn-11% Drop! 📉
Profit After TaxLKR 765 mnLKR 621 mn+23% Increase! 📈
Earnings Per Share (EPS)LKR 0.43LKR 0.35+23% Increase!
Cash From OperationsLKR (8.04) bn OutflowLKR 3.26 bn InflowHuge Swing! 🔻
Total Borrowings (Debt)LKR 4.77 bnLKR 4.16 bn+15% More Debt! ⚠️
Lending PortfolioLKR 44.84 bnLKR 33.64 bn+33% Growth! 📈

🚀 What's Pushing Forward

  • 🛡️Strategic Shift to Secured Lending: Leasing +64%, Gold Loans +65%, improved asset quality, lower NPLs
  • 💻Digital Transformation Drive: New AI-driven core banking, digital loan origination, internet/mobile banking
  • 🤝Strengthened Capital & Confidence: LKR 1.2bn Rights Issue, Fitch Rating upgraded to 'A(lka) Stable Outlook'

⚠️ Potential Pitfalls

  • 💸The "Cash Flow Headache": Massive LKR 8.04bn cash outflow from day-to-day operations
  • 📉Revenue Squeeze & Competition: Lower interest rates, shift from high-interest unsecured loans, aggressive competition
  • 🌍Liquidity & External Risks: Quick Asset Ratio halved, unpredictable regulatory changes, geopolitical tensions, talent migration

🎯 Future Performance Scenarios (12-18 months)

🚀 Bullish
LKR 5.50-7.00
Cash flow turns positive, aggressive digital adoption, strong secured lending growth
📊 Base
LKR 4.00-5.00
Profitability stable, moderate growth, digital progress, cash outflow negative
🔻 Bearish
LKR 2.50-3.50
Cash outflow worsens, unexpected NPL rise, competition squeezes, digital delays

💭 Colombo Stock Whisperer's Bottom Line

HNB Finance is clearly undergoing a significant transformation, aiming for a safer, more stable lending model. Their increased profit, despite lower gross income, shows smart cost and risk management, especially in reducing loan impairments. It's like a kusal-pata (a good innings) where they've cut down on the extras! The Fitch rating upgrade and successful Rights Issue also add a layer of confidence.
However, the large cash outflow from operations is a big yellow flag, and one to watch closely. While they're reinvesting heavily into their lending portfolio and digital future, it needs to translate into healthier operational cash generation soon. For long-term investors who can patiently watch HNBF's digital and strategic shifts mature, this might be an interesting play, but keep an eye on that cash flow. It's a journey, not a sprint, and there could still be some podi baade (small obstacles) along the way.